Category Weather & Climate

How climate change could impact chocolate production?

Chocolate aficionados will perhaps say chocolate is the most endearing invention by humans. We eat it when we are happy and when we are sad; when we celebrate something and when we want to cheer ourselves up. Basically, we don’t need a reason to bite into this delight.

It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to say that it is the most popular sweet treats in the world. The global consumption is estimated to be at least 7.2 million metric tonnes every year.

But here comes the bitter truth – chocolates will soon become rare and expensive.

Chocolate production is threatened by climate change. Cacao trees, from which chocolates are produced, require certain conditions to grow, but with the changing climate, these conditions are no longer available.

How are chocolates produced?

Chocolate comes from fruits called pods that grow on cacao trees. Its seeds, cacao beans, are the main ingredient in chocolate. They are used to make chocolate paste, cocoa powder, cocoa butter and so on. These cacao trees grow only in the warm, humid regions near the Equator, largely in areas designated as rainforests. These places include parts of South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia.

Cacao seeds are harvested by hand and placed in large fermentation trays. Fermentation, which takes two to seven days, gives the beans the chocolate flavour and aroma. The beans are then dried under the sun and are taken to chocolate factories, where they are cleaned and roasted in rotating ovens. This process removes the seeds’ coating, giving us the remaining part – the nib. The nib is then made into a paste called chocolate liquor, which is then used with other ingredients such as cacao butter, milk and sugar to make chocolates.

The story of chocolates

  • Chocolate’s history goes back to 450 BC, when the Aztecs and the Mayans (ancient people of central Mexico) used cacao beans to concoct a drink called xocoatl. It was quite bitter and frothy, and was often mixed with chilli. The Mayans and the Aztecs believed that chocolate was a gift from the gods. (So, do we!)
  • This chocolate drink was brought to Europe during the 16th Century when the Spanish started colonising South America.
  • A powdered form of chocolate was prepared after ‘cocoa press’ was invented in 1828. Then people started adding milk mass-produced. The hitherto drink of the elite became available for others.
  • British chocolate J.S. Fry and Sons introduced the chocolate bar in 1847. In the late 1800s, Milton S. Hershey began selling chocolate-coated caramels in the U.S. He then developed his own formula for milk chocolate. In 1923, the Mars Co. developed the Milky Way bar by putting nougat (made with sugar, honey and nuts) inside a chocolate bar.
  • As the years progressed, chocolate lent itself to innovation. It took different forms, depending on the ingredients, the percentage of cocoa, source of the beans and production method.

Types of chocolate

Dark, milk and white are the three main varieties of chocolates. While dark chocolate has chocolate liquor, cocoa butter, sugar and vanilla, milk chocolate has milk additives. White chocolate is milk chocolate without the chocolate liquor. (Since there is no cacao involved in the production of white chocolate, some argue that it is not chocolate at all.) Dark chocolates are believed to have a number of health benefits. They are good for heart and brain. And are often associated with positive effects on mood. But too much chocolate can be unhealthy because it contains high levels of sugar and fat which can make people put on weight. It can also cause tooth cavity among other issues.

Impending chocapocalypse

  • Cacao trees require steady temperatures, high humidity, lots of rain, nitrogen-rich soil, and protection from wind to thrive. Regions where cacao grows best often have high humidity levels – 100% during the day and 70-80% at night.
  • But with climate change, these conditions are changing. For cacao plants, the change in humidity is a major issue. As the globe heats up, the stages of the water cycle become erratic – floods and droughts become more prevalent and extreme. In tropical environments, rising temperatures lead to increased evaporation rates and decreased humidity, causing cacao crops to suffer.
  • Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana (both in Africa), and Indonesia are the leading cacao-producing countries. But researchers show that these countries will experience a 2.1 degree Celsius increase in temperature by 2050. This will in turn affect rainfall and humidity. As a result, viable land for cacao production will significantly shrink.
  • This has prompted experts to predict that chocolate productions will take a big hit. While chocolate will not go away completely off the shelves, it will become rare and expensive. The market may shift from cheaper, more accessible chocolates to more luxurious ones. That is, in the coming years, we may have to shell out more for chocolates.

Did you know?

  • Chocolate production can also harm the environment. Farmers often clear forests to make room for cacao plantations. About 70% of illegal deforestation in Cote d’Ivoire is related to cacao farming.
  • Cacao plants consume a lot of water. According to National Geographic, it takes 1,700 litres of water to make a 100-gm chocolate bar. That’s about 10 bathtubs of water for one bar of chocolate.

 

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HOW IS SPORT AFFECTED BY THE WEATHER?

            Most outdoor sports events can be affected by adverse weather conditions in one way or another. “Rain stopped play” is a phrase familiar to followers of cricket in England, where the often unpredictable summer weather regularly interrupts a game. Tennis is similarly affected when heavy rain makes play impossible on open-air grass courts. Some sports can be played in almost all weathers (only severe snow and freezing temperatures will stop a soccer or rugby match), but the conditions can influence tactics and the outcome of the game.

            The effects of weather on sport are varied, with some events unable to take place while others are changed considerably. The performance of participants can be reduced or improved, and some sporting world records are invalid if set under certain weather conditions. While outdoor sports are most affected, those played indoors can still be impacted by adverse or advantageous weather conditions.

            Temperature has a significant impact on the performance of athletes. High temperature can cause various heat illnesses such as heat cramps and heat stroke, while very low temperatures may lead to hypothermia.

             Some major sporting events cannot be held when the temperature is too high. When AFC selected Qatar as the host of the 2011 AFC Asian Cup they opted to run the event in the January window rather than July or August because they considered it to be “too hot in the Gulf region”. However, the also set to be held in Qatar, is scheduled for the late fall and early winter.

            Some sports are cancelled because of precipitation. Some are deemed too dangerous to play when the ground is damp because of the danger of injury to a player through slipping.

            When the rain is excessive an event might be canceled because of a waterlogged pitch. Winter sports can sometimes be canceled due to the amount of snow on the ground, be it too little or too much.

            Wind can blow the equipment in a sporting event, changing the direction or travel of a ball. In golf the wind levels may influence the way a shot is taken.A headwind can slow runners, while they may gain wind assistance from a tailwind.Some sports rely on the presence of wind, especially surface water sports.

            Some sports cannot be played if there is insufficient visibility as it can make them dangerous or can be disadvantageous to a competitor. Cricket test matches often finish when the umpire decides that the light level is too low and the timing of this can sometimes be controversial. The difficulties of playing in bad light conditions is also disputed. Some events are called off when there is heavy fog.

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HOW DO FARMERS MAKE USE OF WEATHER FORECASTS?

            Farmers need to pay special attention to the weather in order to tend their crops or feed their animals. Knowledge of a severe frost or rain will influence the time that they sow seeds or harvest crops. Accurate weather forecasts also help farmers to decide when to treat crops with chemicals. For example, should it rain shortly after pesticides are applied, they will be washed away and have little effect — a waste of time and money for the farmer. Forecasts for farmers provide as much information as possible about the weather for the next week or so.

            Most people know that the weather has a significant impact on the agriculture industry. Indeed, crops need the basics of moisture, warmth, and sun to thrive. But what’s less obvious is how the details of weather information can drive a grower’s business decisions, helping them to plan efficiently, minimize costs and maximize yields—and profits—as a result.

             While farmers must make many day-to-day decisions related to weather conditions, there are four primary areas of farming that are fundamentally affected impacted by weather:

            Crop Growth/Irrigation: Crop growth, or crop yield, requires appropriate amounts of moisture, light, and temperature. Detailed and accurate historical, real-time and forecast weather information can help farmers better understand and track the growth status/stage to make informed decisions. Having access to this data can guide farmers in making significant and potentially costly decisions, such as whether, when and how much to irrigate.

            Fertilizer Timing and Delivery: One of the many decisions that farmers have to make is determining the proper time to apply fertilizer, as well as the application rate and fertilizer form to use. A misapplied application caused by weather can wipe away the entire field’s profits. Weather forecasts can be used to ensure that fertilizer is applied in the right conditions—when it’s dry enough so that it doesn’t wash away (which would create a waste of resources and money) but moist enough so that it gets worked into the soil.

            Pest and Disease Control: Certain weather conditions encourage the development and growth of pests and diseases, which can destroy crops. Forecast guidance incorporated into pest and disease modeling can help determine whether—and when—it’s appropriate to apply pest or disease controls. Wind forecasts also play a role in this decision, as crop dusters, aircraft that spray fungicidal or insecticidal chemicals on plants from above, must be utilized when wind conditions are not apt to cause sprayed chemicals to miss their targets.

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WHY ARE WEATHER FORECASTS IMPORTANT FOR PEOPLE AT SEA?

            People who work at sea depend heavily on detailed, specialized weather forecasts because their lives can be at risk when stormy conditions bring high winds and steep seas. Fishermen may decide where to fish according to weather conditions, while sport sailors pay close attention to wind details to plan their racing tactics. All mariners listen to radio stations and coastguard broadcasts for advance warn-ings of weather conditions, which focus on the speed and direction of the wind, visibility and barometer readings.

            We receive weather information every day in a variety of ways – through television, radio, on our smartphones and through conversations around the water cooler. But how do you get weather forecasts on the high seas where WiFi is rarely an option? Across our oceans, NOAA’s Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) is delivering critical weather forecasts to keep you safe – at sea.

           Did you know 11 million Americans travel on cruise ships each year, and that our nation’s maritime shipping industry – the way we primarily receive goods from other countries – is a 1.5 trillion dollar economic activity annually for the U.S? This means accurate and reliable weather forecasts at sea are an incredibly important part of our nation’s economy.

            Every day, expert weather forecasters at OPC deliver more than 150 different products – like forecasting maps and guidance – for weather events across the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins, including the waters around Alaska. This forecast guidance makes its way into the hands of commercial shipping vessels allowing ship captains to dodge hurricanes, cruise ships to route around nor’easters and recreational boaters to return home safely.

            Hazards at sea can vary greatly and OPC forecasts for all of them. High winds, large waves, thunderstorms, sea ice, freezing spray, and volcanic ash all present significant safety issues to mariners traveling with precious cargo- the lives of their passengers and crew.

            Even with these challenges, OPC delivers life-saving forecasts around the clock each day, while also working hard to modernize the ways they provide forecasts to a geographically diverse community. And OPC has some great partners. OPC forecasters collaborate closely with the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Navy and the international maritime community to continually advance services and ensure critical forecasts reach those who rely on them to make safety decisions at sea.

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DID THE GREAT FLOOD DESCRIBED IN THE OLD TESTAMENT ACTUALLY HAPPEN?

            Some experts believe that when glaciers melted 7000 years ago, this caused the Mediterranean to overflow into the Black Sea, then a small freshwater lake. This may form the basis of Middle Eastern tales, such as the one recorded in the Old Testament, of a hugely destructive flood.

           A flood of Biblical proportions just like in the story of Noah’s Ark may have actually happened, according to the oceanographer who found the Titanic.

            Acclaimed underwater archaeologist Robert Ballard claims his team of researchers have uncovered evidence that suggests The Great Flood described in the Bible was actually based on real events.

            Mr Ballard told how he investigated a controversial theory proposed by two scientists from Columbia University that there was a massive flood in the Black Sea region.

           In an interview with ABC News, he said around 12,000 years ago much of the world was covered in ice and the Black Sea had been a freshwater lake surrounded by farmland.

            But when the glaciers began to melt during a warming period in the cycle of the Earth’s temperature around 5600BC water rushed toward the world’s oceans, Mr Ballard said. This, he claimed, caused floods all around the world and water cascaded through Turkey’s Straits of Bosporus towards the Black Sea.

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WHO USES WEATHER FORECASTS?

            Weather forecasts are used by everybody, but some people pay closer attention to them than others. Severe weather conditions can endanger lives on the roads, at sea and in the air, so transport and safety organizations are regularly updated on the weather situation. Many businesses, from farming and fishing to hotels and restaurants can be affected by the weather, so a forecast can help with business planning.

            This chapter examines recent and expected developments in the scientific capability to make seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts and discusses the types of forecasts that are likely to be socially useful. As background for readers unfamiliar with climate forecasting, we begin by discussing the distinction between weather and climate and how climate forecasts are made.

            We are all familiar with the progression of the weather. Every few days, the temperature changes, rain comes and goes, or a severe storm hits. The characteristic time scale for changes in weather in the mid-latitudes is a few days or less. In the tropics, especially over the ocean, the weather tends to be much steadier, with sunny weather and steady trade winds punctuated by an hour of daily downpour (usually in the late afternoon) or by a squall every few days.

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