Category Weather & Climate

          A piece of seaweed is an excellent indicator of humidity. Any moisture in the seaweed evaporates when the air is dry, making it brittle and hard to the touch. When humidity levels increase, the seaweed absorbs moisture again, making it expand and become soft. A high level of moisture in the air is a sure sign that rain will follow soon after. Pieces of seaweed are often seen hanging outside the houses in seaside towns.

          The tradition is to hang dried seaweed outside with a nail. If the seaweed stays dry the weather will be sunny and dry. If the seaweed is wet and flexible, as if it had just been from the ocean, then rain is coming.

          The origin of this tradition is unknown, but the kernel of truth is valid. Seaweeds are able to dehydrate and re-hydrate over and over. If there is enough moisture in the air the dried seaweed will re-hydrate. It turns out that moisture in the air can be a decent indicator of rain.

          Over the weekend, people in the USA sought weather advice from a rodent. Groundhog Day (Feb. 2nd) is a superstitious tradition where if a groundhog emerging from its burrow on this day sees its shadow due to clear weather, it will retreat to its den and winter will persist for six more weeks, and if it does not see its shadow because of cloudiness, spring will arrive early.  There are many different superstitions across cultures to predict weather; some have a kernel of truth while others are outright ridiculous.

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          It is often said that when cows lie down in a field, rain is on the way. This piece of folklore is based on the idea that the cows can sense dampness in the air, so they lie down to make sure they have a dry space to stay. As much as this saying is well known, it is also rarely accurate. Cows will lie down when they are tired, not just when they think it might rain, so they are probably not the best weather forecasters!

          Animal behavior has long been a favorite weather indicator, and a whole herd of superstitions crowd around cows. It’s said, for example, that a cow fed its own hairs will forget its previous home, or that a cow with a piece of its tail lopped off will never run away [source: Farmer’s Almanac].

          Cows have a long history as weather predictors, too. One superstition claims that a cow lies down when rain is coming. Given that cows lie down for a variety of reasons, including cud chewing, it’s tempting to dismiss this claim as “udderly” ridiculous, but further rumination suggests that it might have a leg to stand on after all. The reason? A possible, albeit tenuous, link between crouching cows and wet weather: body heat.

          It turns out that cows tend to stand more often when their bodies overheat, so an upright Guernsey could arguably mean hotter weather while a seated shorthorn implies cooling weather or a storm a’ brewin’. Still, we wouldn’t bet the farm on it, as this maxim is likely a case of over-milking a coincidence.

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          The saying “red sky at night, shepherd’s delight; red sky in morning, shepherd’s warning” probably originated in Europe. There, prevailing winds bring weather systems from the west, so a clear red sky at sunset is thought to indicate the arrival of good weather. A similar sight in the eastern skies at dawn could suggest that the fine weather is passing away.

          The complete saying states: Red sky in morning, sailors warning; red sky at night, sailors delight. This saying only applies to mid-latitude locations (winds are easterly in the tropics / in the high latitudes the sun rises and sets at a large deviation from the east-west trajectory). Storm systems in the middle latitudes generally move west to east. A red sky in the morning implies the rising sun in the east is shining on clouds to the west and conditions are clear to the east. Clouds moving from the west (especially upper level cirrus) indicate an approaching storm system. A red sky at night implies the sun (setting in the west) is shining on clouds to the east and conditions are clear to the west (because the sun can be seen setting). If you can see the sunset, the sky will be redder. Clouds to the east indicate an existing storm system in the middle latitudes. Upper level clouds (especially cirrus) are noted for giving the sky a reddish hue during dawn or dusk. As a mid-latitude cyclone approaches, it is the upper level cirrus that are seen first, followed by lower clouds. The approach of upper level cirrus from the west often indicates an approaching storm system. The sky will not be as red at night if a storm system is approaching because the sun is setting behind the clouds approaching from the west. A red sky at night implies “the storm system moving through has ended!”; The clouds have broken and the sun is shining on and reddening the exiting clouds. The sun will continue to shine on clouds for a period of time after the sun has dipped below the horizon (especially cirrus). Keep in mind this saying was developed before satellite, radar and modern meteorological knowledge. Much of the knowledge of an approaching storm system back then was cloud and wind patterns. Of course, this saying (weather folklore) has some profound problems such as:

(1) The sky can be “reddish” near the sun at dawn and dusk (with or without clouds)
(2) Storm systems do not always move straight west to east

(3) Cirrus can occur without a storm system approaching or leaving. Clouds can cover one side of the sky or the other without being directly associated with a storm system.

(4) The meteorological sailor may delight at an approaching storm system even while taking precautions at the same time

(5) Rarely do the clouds from an approaching or exiting storm system only cover 1/2 of the eastern or western sky. The saying represents an ideal case.

SUMMARY: If you can see the sunrise but the west part of the sky is dark: look out for approaching bad weather. If you can see the sunset: the weather conditions will be nice.

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          People have been forecasting the weather for thousands of years, based on changes seen in the world around them. Many such observations are little more than folklore and superstition, but it is true that certain plants and animals can detect variations in the air that people cannot, providing us with a natural sign of a change in the weather.

          When it comes to predicting the weather by using nature signs, old civilizations were masters in doing it. If you’re on a wilderness trip without checking the weather forecast before, there are plenty of ways to read the language of nature and tell what the weather will be like in the next hours and even days.

          It’s of extreme importance to know what climate you are going to face on a wild adventure because you need to stay safe and take precautions if there’s a storm coming closer. Predicting weather is a crucial skill that every hiking and backpacking enthusiast should learn.

         Reading the height and the shape of the clouds is something you must learn if you want to have weather accuracy. High and white clouds mean a sunny and bright day. Black and low clouds are a sign of a rainstorm. A grey veil formed by clouds means that you need to run to a shelter.

        A red sky at dusk and dawn is one of the most beautiful views that we all enjoy, especially near the beach. If the sky is red at dusk, it means that the next day will be sunny. On the contrary, a red sky at dawn means that the low pressure air is bringing moisture and rain.

        Ancient people closely observed the behavior of animals to predict weather changes. Watch animals to see how their behavior changes with the weather change. For example, insect-eating birds like swallows fly low right before the rain, and ants tend to build their anthills with higher, steeper sides. Also, if you notice that the bees and butterflies disappear from the flowers they usually visit; it means the storm is coming.

       The flower’s scent is strongest just before the rain because aromas spread more when there is moisture in the air. You may also notice the sweet, sharp smell of ozone just before a summer storm as it is carried to lower altitudes by the storm’s downdraft. So, if you notice an unusually strong smell, it often means rain is on the way.

       If you see milky-white rings around the Sun or Moon, it’s a sign of extreme humidity and moisture coming closer to the Earth’s surface.

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            At Sea, weather conditions are monitored by ships, which take measurements of pressure and sea and air temperatures. Ships may be used to launch weather balloons. Free-floating buoys are also used to collect weather data. They drift with ocean currents, transmitting sea-level weather details to satellites. They are much less expensive to maintain than specialist weather ships.

            Marine weather forecasting is the process by which mariners and meteorological organizations attempt to forecast future weather conditions over the Earth’s oceans. Mariners have had rules of thumb regarding the navigation around tropical cyclones for many years, dividing a storm into halves and sailing through the normally weaker and more navigable half of their circulation. Marine weather forecasts by various weather organizations can be traced back to the sinking of the Royal Charter in 1859 and the RMS Titanic in 1912.

            The wind is the driving force of weather at sea, as wind generates local wind waves, long ocean swells, and its flow around the subtropical ridge helps maintain warm water currents such as the Gulf Stream. The importance of weather over the ocean during World War II led to delayed or secret weather reports, in order to maintain a competitive advantage. Weather ships were established by various nations during World War II for forecasting purposes, and were maintained through 1985 to help with transoceanic plane navigation.

            Voluntary observations from ships, weather buoys, weather satellites, and numerical weather prediction have been used to diagnose and help forecast weather over the Earth’s ocean areas. Since the 1960s, numerical weather prediction’s role over the Earth’s seas has taken a greater role in the forecast process. Weather elements such as sea state, surface winds, tide levels, and sea surface temperature are tackled by organizations tasked with forecasting weather over open oceans and seas. Currently, the Japan Meteorological Agency, the United States National Weather Service, and the United Kingdom Met Office create marine weather forecasts for the Northern Hemisphere.

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            Satellites serve two purposes in weather forecasting. Communications satellites are used to send weather data around the world, while dedicated weather satellites monitor the movement of weather systems and the patterns of cloud cover: There are two types of weather satellite. Geostationary satellites are fixed in one position, observing a certain area from their orbit high above the Equator. Polar-orbiting satellites circle the Earth from pole to pole. The planet’s rotation means that each orbit takes in a different part of the Earth.

            In order to predict the weather accurately for the hours and days ahead weather forecasters must analyze the information they receive from number of sources – including local weather observes, weather balloons, weather stations, and satellites.

           Speaking of satellites – NASA has a train of satellites called the Afternoons Constellation, nicknamed the “A”-Train, which are orbiting the Earth and are collecting all sorts of data. This includes data that will help predict weather and climate change.

            For example NASA has the Cloudsat satellite for studding the aspect of clouds, and Caplipso for studding the climate change, and how aerosols and particles affect the Earth’s atmosphere.

            Many businesses and people rely on accurate weather conditions for different purposes – farmers need to know the best time to plant they crops; airplane takeoffs, landings, and flight paths are scheduled according to local weather conditions. Weather forecast alert people for severe storms that can be danger to personal property. Most people want to know what the weather will be like as they go to and from work, school, or plan outdoor activities.

           The atmosphere is constantly changing and even though the scientist receive weather data from variety of sources – stations, satellites, observers, and balloons – it is still impossible to predict the weather correctly 100% of the time.

            One of the ways of improving weather prediction and climate is to develop new technologies that helps scientists understand how the atmosphere works.

            One such tech is the NASA’s Cloudsat satellite. This instrument provides a vertical cloud profiling from space improving weather and climate forecast.

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            Computers are used to collect weather information and also to help meteorologists predict the weather. Special software uses the data to develop a “model” of the expected weather.

            Throughout history, numerous techniques and experiments were performed by meteorologists to predict the weather with greater efficacy over time. Due to substantial advances in technology, it is now possible to forecast the weather days and even months in advance—which was not truly possible before the mid-20th century. The use of computer models became widespread mainly throughout the 1960s, as the first weather satellites were launched. The types of computer models that are used in forecasts depend mostly on the type of climate and weather conditions.

            Climate models are primarily used to forecast substantial changes in the earth’s climate. Climate is the average weather conditions in an area for a prolonged period of time. Therefore, climate models use a combination of statistical and current data to provide a reasonable forecast. The CFS is one of the primary climate models used for forecasting planetary scale weather conditions such as: El Nino, Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO), and monsoons.

            Statistical models are primarily used to help meteorologist provide accurate analog forecasts. Statistical models use data from previous storms and weather conditions to help meteorologists get a better idea of how to track current weather systems. Statistical models are commonly used to track tropical and mid latitude cyclones. If the dynamical model consensus is not reasonable, meteorologists often use statistical models to provide better forecasts.

            Although atmospheric computer models are effective tools for weather forecasting, they are not impeccably accurate. Computer models are usually less efficient during the preliminary runs. For instance during the first stages of tropical cyclogenesis (tropical cyclone formation), computer models are usually not initialized enough to provide a reasonable forecast. Long range forecasts (beyond a week) are usually less accurate, because there are many atmospheric factors that can come into play beyond that time. Dynamic models are most accurate for three- to five-day forecasts.

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            Weather data in remote areas is collected by automated weather stations. Equipped with a wide range of instruments and computers, the stations record and transmit information via satellite every hour. Individual observers with a small number of simple instruments also play an important part in all levels of weather forecasting.

            A weather station is a facility, either on land or sea, with instruments and equipment for measuring atmospheric conditions to provide information for weather forecasts and to study the weather and climate. The measurements taken include temperature, atmospheric pressure, humidity, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation amounts. Wind measurements are taken with as few other obstructions as possible, while temperature and humidity measurements are kept free from direct solar radiation, or insolation. Manual observations are taken at least once daily, while automated measurements are taken at least once an hour. Weather conditions out at sea are taken by ships and buoys, which measure slightly different meteorological quantities such as sea surface temperature (SST), wave height, and wave period. Drifting weather buoys outnumber their moored versions by a significant amount.

Typical weather stations have the following instruments:

• Thermometer for measuring air and sea surface temperature
• Barometer for measuring atmospheric pressure
• Hygrometer for measuring humidity
• Anemometer for measuring wind speed
• Pyranometer for measuring solar radiation
• Rain gauge for measuring liquid precipitation over a set period of time.
• Wind sock for measuring general wind speed and wind direction
• Wind vane, also called a weather vane or a weathercock: it shows whence the wind is blowing.

In addition, at certain automated airport weather stations, additional instruments may be employed, including:

• Present Weather/Precipitation Identification Sensor for identifying falling precipitation
• Disdrometer for measuring drop size distribution
• Transmissometer for measuring visibility
• Ceilometer for measuring cloud ceiling

More sophisticated stations may also measure the ultraviolet index, leaf wetness, soil moisture, soil temperature, water temperature in ponds, lakes, creeks, or rivers, and occasionally other data.

Exposure

           Except for those instruments requiring direct exposure to the elements (anemometer, rain gauge), the instruments should be sheltered in a vented box, usually a Stevenson screen, to keep direct sunlight off the thermometer and wind off the hygrometer. The instrumentation may be specialized to allow for periodic recording otherwise significant manual labour is required for record keeping. Automatic transmission of data, in a format such as METAR, is also desirable as many weather station’s data is required for weather forecasting.

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            Research Aircraft are used to obtain detailed information about the atmosphere. They carry very sophisticated radar and laser equipment that records a three-dimensional picture of clouds at various levels in the atmosphere. Some planes are dedicated to monitoring hurricanes, often flying into the centre of the storm itself. The information collected by aircraft is much more detailed than that collected by weather balloons.

            A recent example of unexpected utility is the meteorological application of transponders developed for air-traffic management. Accurate wind information for the upper atmosphere is a key requirement for weather prediction. Currently, most wind data comes from weather balloons, wind profilers, Doppler radars and satellites. Mode-S EHS, a novel source of wind data from aircraft flight levels, is helping us to make more accurate weather forecasts.

            Under European regulations, all large aircraft must carry Mode-S EHS- enhanced surveillance navigation apparatus. Aircraft equipped with EHS transponders are interrogated every four seconds by ground-based radar and, in response, send information on position, flight level, magnetic heading, air speed and ground speed. Air-traffic control monitors this data to ensure efficient and safe operations.

            Suppose a plane is heading eastwards at 200m per second. Its position is known accurately by the satellite-based global positioning system or GPS. Four seconds later, it should be 800m east of its initial position. But suppose there is a wind of 50m per second from the southeast. This will slow the plane and cause it to drift to the north.

            The GPS location shows precisely where the plane has gone in four seconds and determines the ground speed. Since ground speed (G) is the vector sum of air speed (A) and wind speed (W), a simple vector calculation gives us the wind. What a delightfully simple application of vectors; what a shame that vectors have been dropped from Leaving Cert maths.

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            Weather balloons are used to take measurements of humidity, pressure and temperature at altitudes of up to 20km (12 miles). The readings are taken by instruments called radiosondes carried beneath the balloon. These transmit the information to processing stations on the ground. Wind strength and direction is monitored by tracking the movement of the balloon.

            A weather or sounding balloon is a balloon (specifically a type of high-altitude balloon) that carries instruments aloft to send back information on atmospheric pressure, temperature, humidity and wind speed by means of a small, expendable measuring device called a radiosonde. To obtain wind data, they can be tracked by radar, radio direction finding, or navigation systems (such as the satellite-based Global Positioning System, GPS). Balloons meant to stay at a constant altitude for long periods of time are known as transosondes. Weather balloons that do not carry an instrument pack are used to determine upper-level winds and the height of cloud layers. For such balloons, a theodolite or total station is used to track the balloon’s azimuth and elevation, which are then converted to estimated wind speed and direction and/or cloud height, as applicable.

            One of the first persons to use weather balloons was Léon Teisserenc de Bort, the French meteorologist. Starting in 1896 he launched hundreds of weather balloons from his observatory in Trappes, France. These experiments led to his discovery of the tropopause and stratosphere. Transosondes, weather balloons with instrumentation meant to stay at a constant altitude for long periods of time to help diagnose radioactive debris from atomic fallout, were experimented with in 1958.

            Weather balloons are launched around the world for observations used to diagnose current conditions as well as by human forecasters and computer models for weather forecasting. About 800 locations around the globe do routine releases, twice daily, usually at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC. Some facilities will also do occasional supplementary “special” releases when meteorologists determine there is a need for additional data between the 12-hour routine launches in which time much can change in the atmosphere. Military and civilian government meteorological agencies such as the National Weather Service in the US typically launch balloons, and by international agreements almost all the data are shared with all nations.

            Specialized uses also exist, such as for aviation interests, pollution monitoring, photography or videography and research. Examples include pilot balloons (Pibal). Field research programs often use mobile launchers from land vehicles as well as ships and aircraft (usually dropsondes in this case). In recent years weather balloons have also been used for scattering human ashes at high-altitude. The weather balloon was also used to create the fictional entity ‘Rover’ during production of the 1960s TV series The Prisoner in Portmeirion, Gwynedd, North Wales, UK in September 1966. This was retained in further scenes shot at MGM Borehamwood UK during 1966-67.

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